Roaring back!

Almost exactly a century ago, the Roaring Twenties came to symbolise new beginnings, liberation from war, freedom of expression, and mass socialising and partying after the world recovered from another global pandemic – the Spanish flu.

 

I’ve been reading with kindred sentiment about President Warren G. Harding and how his slogan "Return to normalcy" was the centrepoint of his successful campaign in 1920. With the similarities of the past year to those events of a century ago, I wonder whether the new President Elect can similarly ‘bring back normalcy’ to the world’s largest economy. 

There do seem to be a lot of indicators that the next decade could see us reliving the roaring twenties with the new 20s in the 21st century. Technological innovation accelerated by COVID-19 coupled with the booming digital economy has led many sectors to thrive. People (like myself) have become frustrated by the relentless nature of 2020, but although there has undoubtedly been hardship, stress and financial loss for many, some have been able to save money and energy, leading to a build-up of social and monetary ‘capital’, and a real eagerness to engage and enjoy experiences with friends and family. I do think that when we are able, there will be a boom in travel, hospitality and anything that brings us all back together again. 

Analysts at US investment bank Morgan Stanley issued their most up-to-date strategy outlook, and the summary says it all: “Keep the faith, trust the recovery...” predicting a ‘V-shaped’ recovery. Whilst there is little certainty at the moment, there is a reasonable chance that this could be the case – especially as this is what history tells us happened after the Spanish Flu. 

If you're looking for some inspiration on where to spend time in the new 20s, why not escape to our latest private island development.

A travel boom in boutique accommodation and lessons to be learned from Airbnb

There was a time not so long ago where I became a bit jaded of travelling; tired of seeing the inside of a plane and another hotel room. Now I’m really looking forward to getting back out again and I don’t think I’m the only one! 

 

The Official Airline Guides’, the global travel data provider, recent survey showed that over 81% of travelers plan to take a domestic flight sometime in the next six months, and 73% of them also intend to travel internationally. I think the numerous successful vaccines will only boost these numbers - but many are coming to understand that planes may be safer than we think - mainly due to their hospital-grade ventilation system, HEPA. 

Airbnb’s recent IPO showed that it’s ability to adapt extremely fast is one of the reasons they are showing an impressive display of 70-80% of 2019’s figures, when compared to larger hotel chains such as Marriott and Hilton. Taking note of Deloitte’s recent article highlighting ways organisations can find ‘Opportunities to thrive’ shows that being able to adapt to the market - whether with digital solutions or flexible operating models - is the way to go. Those with the ability to adapt and tailor their offer to meet the demands of their guests – whose priorities have changed to unpopulated space and small individual properties and villas – will be one of the key ways to thrive in the new era of travel.

If you’re looking for a boutique offering with individual villas, check out some of our latest Caribbean offerings.

The rise of the ‘Workation-ers’ and ‘Digital Nomads’

WORKATION (noun) – a working vacation, where you go to an exotic location and complete specific tasks or accomplish a goal before you leave. In between work sprints, you vacation.

WANDERLUST (noun) – the wish to travel far away and too many different places.


 

So, I can’t be the only person that has grown a little tired of the COVID ‘Groundhog Day’ - long hours in front of the laptop, no proper coffee or lunch breaks and talking to everyone virtually?

However, there are benefits from being untethered from office. Many travel firms have launched new programmes specifically targeting this new demand from ‘digital nomads’ and ‘workationers’, as families and friends are packing up their bags and moving elsewhere for a while, with favourable extended-stay rates – whether it’s for a one, two, or three month “mini lease,” or even longer. This way of travelling is slower, calmer, exploratory, and more sustainable and the feeling is, “there is no reason to be at home — so why not go?”

Back in April, at the peak of lockdown here in the UK, nearly half (47%) of people in employment did at least some of their work from home, according to the Office for National Statistics. A clear shift from previous working patterns and as we come to the end of the year, it appears to be a trend here to stay! 

One thing COVID has taught us (apart from to hug people when we can) is that the greatest luxury, in both property and travel, is vast unpeopled space. In the UK we have seen a run on people moving out of the city, decamping to the rural locations, such as the Cotswolds, with viewings in May more than 65% higher than the previous year, as people look to find more space, whilst also being within commutable distance to the Capital.

When it comes to travel, this trend continues, with not only the rise of workation-ers and digital nomads but “takeovers” (buying out a hotel or resort in its entirety) becoming popular for those with larger budgets. 

With newfound working freedom, seeking out a working environment that offers exotic landscapes and leisure experiences (alongside reliable WiFi of course), is certainly appealing. If you’re going to work from home indefinitely, why not make a new home in an exotic place with less pollution and be surrounded by the countryside or the ocean?

If you are interested in the benefits of working from an exotic landscape or just the prospect of taking extended vacations, take a peek at our latest villas - designed for both vacationers and workation-ers!

So, what does this mean for property?

So, there is reason to hope and I have a feeling that positive sentiment will be back in 2021 as we, hopefully, ease out of COVID, catalysed with the recent multiple vaccine announcements, but there will inevitably be permanent changes to the global property market.

 

We are, as a whole, likely to spend more time around the home and interact with our cities in a different way. Companies are primed to reduce their office footprint with 74% of financial services firms reviewing their office space needs, according to CBI and PWC, but with that we could see an increase in demand for co-working spaces in suburbs as people look for the best ways to work remotely.

Services in outsourced sectors such as HR, accounting, IT support and customer service will be well-suited to this business environment and could fuel a start-up boom post COVID-19.

Many agents I have spoken with recently are still bullish about the property market next year with UK property portal, Zoopla, estimating more than 100,000 additional house sales during the first three months of 2021, and buyers rush to complete their purchases before the end of the stamp duty holiday.

My gut says that there will be a ‘correction’ in the UK market – depending on what happens with the stamp duty holiday, which was introduced in July on properties up to £500,000 which is due to come to an end in March 2021. Although unemployment will have a potential negative impact overall on prices, demand will still be there as confidence increases. Some buyers have been holding onto their cash whilst supply has been constrained creating pent up demand. It’s so hard to predict, but this coupled with the fact that interest rates will likely remain low should mean that we will see a dip but not a crash in 2021.

There are multiple hypotheses for what permanent change will look like, but one thing should be clear: the world after COVID is irrevocably different and we will not return to the life we had in 2019. The digital economy we've been creating is borderless and should thrive globally. 

Once we emerge from our bubbles into the new year, I am hopeful that recovery can be rapid, even if the economy is likely to grow back in a somewhat different form. I'm interested to hear your opinions on how you think 2020 has changed the world we live and work in and how you think the next year will play out so if you have any comments or thoughts, please feel free to email me directly. 

So as we say goodbye to what has been a challenging year, let’s reset and look forward to our ‘roaring 20s’ and the opportunities they hold!